200 Million Climate Change Migrants Possible

A new report highlights the prospect of climate change displacing 200 million people currently living in some of the world’s poorest regions, like Vietnam.  With this in mind, humanitarian organisations are now urging those involved in emission reducing, climate change discussions to take the people factor in consideration, too.

“What can we say? This is not a pretty picture," said CARE International’s Charles Ehrhart – the co-author of this report, which was presented at the climate change discussions presently taking place in Germany.  The purpose of these talks - at which 184 countries are represented – is to pull together initial thoughts and opinions prior to the December 2009 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change meeting, at which a replacement Kyoto Protocol deal is scheduled to be struck up.   The Kyoto Protocol - which sets individual national targets for greenhouse gas emission reductions – was incepted in 1997, but runs out in 2012.

“The consequences for almost all aspects of development and human security could be devastating”, the report stressed.  The principal catalyst for mass population exodus in the near future, according to Ehrhart, will probably be the impact that climate change will have on ecosystems.  For example, a two metre sea level rise felt in Vietnam’s Mekong River Delta could wipe out massive areas of farmland, forcing people to move away.

Future Effects of Climate Change

The future effects of climate change will be worse unless developed nations aid undeveloped nations in constructing a new type of life for themselves that is better equipped to withstand its force.  These changes need not be overly complex, as CARE’s work illustrates.  The organisation is currently working in Bangladesh – a part of the world that suffers frequent floods.  Here, it is aiding chicken farmers replace their chickens with ducks while, elsewhere, resilient crops could be introduced in replacement of weaker crops.  "So if the rains don't come when needed, you don't lose an entire crop”, explained Ehrhart.

Climate Migration

The extent of climate migration, he added, could be astronomical.   Financially unable to leave their country, those displaced by climate change would probably move out of the rural areas and into the big cities, leading to overcrowding and other issues.

The report’s sponsors included the Institute for Environment and Human Security (a division of the UN) and the Center for International Earth Science Information Network, which is part of Columbia University.  Its principal author was the UN institute’s head, Koko Warner, who explained the need for revised and more in-depth though on the issue of climate migration.

“New thinking and practical approaches are needed to address the threats that climate-related migration poses to human security and well-being”, he stated.