The effects of climate change scattered hundreds of people living in Syrian villages in 2007 and again in 2008, according to a new report.  Produced by the IISD (International Institute for Sustainable Development), the report added that, as a result, conflict could erupt over who gets access to water supplies in the area.

Overall, more than 150 Syrian villages have emptied out over the past two years.

“The 2007/8 drought caused significant hardship in rural areas of Syria”, the report explained.

“In the northeast of the country, a reported 160 villages have been entirely abandoned and the inhabitants have had to move to urban areas.”

Referring not only to Syria, but to other Middle Eastern nations including Israel and Jordan, the report added:  “...climate change threatens to reduce the availability of scarce water resources, increase food insecurity, hinder economic growth and lead to large-scale population movements”, concluding: “This could hold serious implications for peace in the
region.”

Middle East Water Shortages

While the Middle East is already associated with water shortages and demand for water exceeding availability, climate change, the report said, would make things worse, with warmer temperatures and drier air forecast.

“Climate change itself poses real security concerns to the region”, said study author Oli Brown. ”It could lead to increased militarisation of strategic natural resources, complicating peace agreements.  Israel is already using climate change as an excuse to increase their control over the water resources in the region.”

Brown, together with the study’s other writer, Alec Crawford, added:  “As a region, the Levant [an old-fashioned term covering a number of Middle Eastern countries, Israel among them] produces a tiny fraction of global emissions - less than one per cent of the world total.”

Per capita, however, Israel’s emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases stand at 11.8 metric tonnes – higher than the 10.05 metric tonnes figure found across Europe, on average.

“This may exacerbate the existing deep mistrust of the West, including Israel, which would be seen as causing a problem that it is unable or unwilling to resolve”, the pair explained.

The report highlighted the range of approaches that governments and other bodies in the Middle East could take in mitigating the situation and fighting climate change.  Among them are encouragement of a regionalised cultivation culture, an increased emphasis on sharing resources and the development of methods of reducing CO2 emission output.

Farming Industry in Syria

Climate change could have a serious impact on the farming industry in Syria – farming being an activity that makes up over 20 per cent of GDP.  Syrian rainfall, according to local weatherman Khales Mawed, reduced by one centimetre every year from 1956 to 2006.  At the same time, temperatures increased half a degree (Centigrade) – one-tenth of a degree less than the global average.