Recession to Cut 2009 CO2 Emissions by 2%

Triggered by the worldwide recession and other factors, global CO2 emissions are on track to drop further in 2009 than they have done in the previous four decades, according to new data from the IEA (International Energy Agency).  The agency forecasts a two per cent-plus drop this year, in line with economic conditions and the advent of processes like emissions trading schemes. 

The IEA’s release of this data occurred on September 21st 2009, one day prior to a UN climate change meeting timed to ride the waves of the build-up to a much larger global warming convention taking place in Denmark in December.  Here, representatives of 190 countries will attempt to forge a replacement Kyoto Protocol.

GDP and CO2 Emissions

The natural link between GDP and CO2 emissions meant that news of lowered emissions (as a result of less money being spent, in effect) was fully anticipated.  However, the sheer scale of the drop has taken many analysts by surprise and, according to the IEA, the recession accounts for about 75 per cent of this two per cent.  The 25 per cent left over is linked to new environmental technologies and other climate change strategies, the agency says – strategies such as the Emissions Trading Scheme run within the EU, and energy efficiency gains made within the auto industry and suchlike.

2009 Emissions

The 2009 emissions data issued by the IEA represents preliminary findings only at this stage, with a fuller revision to follow on in two months’ time.  In terms of individual nations and continents, US CO2 emissions are expected to shed six per cent, while those for Europe, up to five per cent. 

“The biggest [previous] fall was in 1981, at 1.3 percent, after oil price shocks and economic troubles”, the IEA’s chief economist, Fatih Birol, told news agency Reuters.  “We estimate this year the fall will be around twice that.”

Explaining the rationale behind the figures, he added:  “We have looked country by country at power, coal, oil and gas consumption for the last eight to eight and a half months and we estimate what could happen in the next three months.”

See also:

2009 US CO2 Emissions to Drop Five Per Cent