Temperature Rises Trigger African Conflicts

According to new research, climate can be classed as a major accelerator of African armed conflict, and climate change will probably mean more war-related deaths occur in future years.  The research was carried out by scientists in the US, who discovered that in Africa as a whole, the warmest years were marked by higher levels of conflict, and it intimated that lack of food was one factor that would antagonise people. 

A number of recent conflicts, including that in Darfur, have been linked to the climate theme.  As far as Darfur is concerned, unrest there has resulted in the deaths of 200,000 people and the displacement of millions more. 

Temperature and Conflict

Prior to now, it was thought that rain shortages were to blame for conflict erupting, so the new research – coverage of which appears in PNAS (the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science publication), and which covers two decades of African history – marks a scientific first in drawing a link between temperature and conflict. 

The scientists assessed the period 1981-2002 in terms of temperature shifts and conflicts which had claimed at least 1,000 casualties.  Through doing this, they were able to establish that conflicts were approximately 50 per cent more likely in warmer years, and that food was a probable conflict catalyst.

“Studies show that crop yields in the region are really sensitive to small shifts in temperature, even of half a degree or so”, head scientist involved – the University of California’s Marshall Burke – told the BBC.  “If the sub-Saharan climate continues to warm and little is done to help its countries better adapt to high temperatures, the human costs are likely to be staggering”, he added.

Climate Change and Conflict

The anticipated global temperature rises linked to oncoming climate change will probably trigger increased conflict levels, the study proposed. 

One central issue that world leaders will discuss at next month’s Copenhagen climate change talks will be the degree to which developed countries should fund climate change initiatives in undeveloped countries.  “Our findings provide strong impetus to ramp up investments in African adaptation to climate change by such steps as developing crop varieties less sensitive to extreme heat and promoting insurance plans to help protect farmers from adverse effects of the hotter climate”, Dr Burke stressed, in reference to this.