Ten Years to Reduce CO2 Emissions

A sub-two degree global temperature increase is pretty much unobtainable unless CO2 emissions start to reduce over the coming ten years.  That’s the verdict of a new study carried out by the Met Office and unveiled at the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, which runs from December 7th to 18th 2009. 

The Met Office’s Avoid study – in which it collaborated with a number of other science-based organisations – discovered that an even more stringent one-and-a-half degree rise – which a number of undeveloped nations have pressed for - is almost 100 per cent unachievable, due to the sheer volume of atmospheric greenhouse gases.  And – even if no more greenhouse gas emissions were created from this day forward – a 1.3 per cent temperature rise would still occur. 

Carbon Emission Reductions

However, there is a 50 per cent change of limiting the global temperature increase to under two degrees if, from 2018 onwards, annual emissions reductions of four per cent can be achieved.  If carbon emission reductions start taking place just two years later, though – in 2020 – they would need to be set at five per cent to ensure the rise remains below the two degree threshold.

“If you go to 2025 before peaking, it's virtually impossible to stay under 2C”, the Met Office’s Vicky Pope stated in comments made to the BBC, adding: “There's no way you'd get a 50 per cent chance of avoiding 1.5C.  If you reduced everything to zero immediately you'd still get about 1.3C because of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere.”

Negative Emissions

In fact, negative emissions would need to be created to keep the temperature spike below one-and-a-half degrees, employing technologies such CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) to strip the atmosphere of CO2. 

The Copenhagen Climate Change Conference has attracted representatives of over 190 nations from around the world. 

Earlier this month, the Met Office highlighted how the decade just gone had exceeded all others in terms of maximum recorded temperatures. 

See also:

Devastating Met Office Climate Change Report