Transport CO2 Emissions Set to Get Worse

The impact that transport is having on climate change is set to get worse in years to come, according to a new study which forecasts how this will take place, and to what degree.  Statistically, transport related greenhouse gas emissions were thought to be responsible for approximately 10 per cent of the global emissions total at the end of the 20th century.  Within this, CO2 was the prime contributor, and O3 (tropospheric ozone) the second most active. 

Now – say CICERO (Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research) scientists, transport emissions can generally be expected to rise to a point where they occupy a 15 per cent share of the global emissions total by the middle of this century.  This is the case in three of the four future emissions projections created by the scientists at Oslo-based CICERO, spearheaded by Doctor Jan S. Fuglestvedt.  Their work represents one component of a wider project called QUANTIFY – Quantifying the Climate Impact of Global and European Transport Systems. 

Transport Emissions

Based on a 15 per cent global emissions share by 2050, from there on in, transport emissions have the potential to rise a further five per cent by the end of 2099, the scientists warn. “More travelling and international trade drive the emission increase”, Doctor Fuglestvedt stated.  “Road transport gives the largest contribution and will most likely continue to do so in the future.”

The transport sector creates a wide mix of emission forms, all of which impact on the environment.  They vary in terms of their temperature impact, however (not all of them warm the earth up, for example), as well as in terms of duration, with some being short-lived and some more permanent than that. 

Emissions from Transport

The Oslo scientists’ four projections on future emissions from transport are influenced by multiple factors, like how global population might grow, and how the worldwide economy might be expected to fare.  That’s why there are four of them, as opposed to just one.  Detailing them further, Doctor Fuglestvedt explained:

“A scenario-based study shows the main patterns of possible future developments, given what we know today and different assumptions. We see that CO2 is the most important greenhouse gas in the long term, but several other components and effects are also important.  Some of these effects are very uncertain, especially those regarding aviation.”

Its road traffic that currently produces the highest greenhouse gas emissions output, the scientists state, with aviation ranked second.  Aviation alone is predicted to become responsible for four per cent of global emissions by around 2050. 

See also:

Transport Emissions - the True Picture